tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post7514235476857217980..comments2024-03-28T03:38:53.734-07:00Comments on MacroMania: Whither the consumer? David Andolfattohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-48724133661586645712013-08-30T06:51:17.074-07:002013-08-30T06:51:17.074-07:00Why are you posting anonymously, Steve? ;)Why are you posting anonymously, Steve? ;)David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-10971506500706578152013-08-29T21:12:10.969-07:002013-08-29T21:12:10.969-07:00Steve Williamson explains this in his intermediate...Steve Williamson explains this in his intermediate macro textbook, the chapter on real intertemporal model.<br />Which by the way is easily the best intermediate text out there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-8228344367026119042013-08-29T16:28:48.034-07:002013-08-29T16:28:48.034-07:00I read this elsewhere, but...
If you look at h-1, ...I read this elsewhere, but...<br />If you look at h-1, h-3, and h-9 sub 2011 Dollars you see income declining in all quintiles from 2006 to 2011. That would account for a drop in consumer spending I recon.<br /><br />http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/index.htmlSerukohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15392501057527298329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-57178247534393188182013-08-29T06:03:07.540-07:002013-08-29T06:03:07.540-07:00"Can someone point me to a theoretical model ..."Can someone point me to a theoretical model that generates this type of consumption-investment dynamic during a recovery?"<br /><br />I can't but show the graph to a mathematician/engineer who is expert on dynamical systems, they might respond with "looks like a classical coupled oscillator" (or similar) and work from there. I did this once with a plot of HFT price data and the explanation of a coupled oscillator was (probably) a good explanation of the mechanism.Tim Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06952723922503939504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-46787016156812501132013-08-28T13:26:14.038-07:002013-08-28T13:26:14.038-07:00"Anonymous: the GDP is a measure of aggregate..."Anonymous: the GDP is a measure of aggregate income. By income, are you referring just to labor income?"<br /><br />Can't speak for Anonymous, but that seems a likely rough approximation. GDP can be too reflective of those whose spending will vary relatively little with changes in income. GDP can potentially see a tremendous rise despite the vast majority of incomes stagnating or declining versus inflation. And consumer spending depends heavily on that vast majority of lower incomes.State of Thoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10367399699314075343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-14372252904566691642013-08-28T10:33:19.822-07:002013-08-28T10:33:19.822-07:00The behavior of consumer spending could be a funct...The behavior of consumer spending could be a function of the income shift towards lower consumption propensity households. This started around 1980, but the effects were masked by consumption smoothing. Around 2000, the high consumption propensity households realized it was a permanent, not temporary, adjustment to their income trend. As a result they began to delever, and their true income-constrained consumption behavior is now evident. <br /><br />I'm sure I've left out some general equilibrium aspect.Diego Espinosanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-41898483512462893902013-08-28T08:43:24.959-07:002013-08-28T08:43:24.959-07:00Nice flowcharts. What is one supposed to do with t...Nice flowcharts. What is one supposed to do with them?David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-3852662176975082662013-08-28T08:41:50.668-07:002013-08-28T08:41:50.668-07:00We should always worry about measurement error. Bu...We should always worry about measurement error. But could you please elaborate?David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-28906522343677132082013-08-28T08:32:19.886-07:002013-08-28T08:32:19.886-07:00effectivedemand.typepad.comeffectivedemand.typepad.comSteve Rothhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11895481216028771016noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-76819344666407931002013-08-28T08:00:34.389-07:002013-08-28T08:00:34.389-07:00Do you think there could be measurement error with...Do you think there could be measurement error with the investment stats ? McGrattan and Presoott talk about the importance of intangible investment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-45746299801084642242013-08-27T22:21:30.956-07:002013-08-27T22:21:30.956-07:00Anonymous: the GDP is a measure of aggregate incom...Anonymous: the GDP is a measure of aggregate income. By income, are you referring just to labor income? David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-15325881221172704322013-08-27T20:37:15.442-07:002013-08-27T20:37:15.442-07:00I guess a forever upward sloping real gdp figure m...I guess a forever upward sloping real gdp figure means little if the income from it keeps going to a smaller group. To me, deleveraging is just code for buying back equity in your life, and that appears to be the path for all of us for the forseeable future. I assume if one examined the public debt per person in our country, far more people would actually have negative net worth than you realize.<br />JSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-15046952823869346542013-08-27T20:28:48.164-07:002013-08-27T20:28:48.164-07:00And if there is no income recovery, how come we ke...And if there is no income recovery, how come we keep hearing about the current and "economic recovery"?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-75448293240764643752013-08-27T19:08:11.202-07:002013-08-27T19:08:11.202-07:00I'm not seeing much discussion about income he...I'm not seeing much discussion about income here. And as someone who sells stuff and knows demand drives the entire locomotive, I'm pretty sure that if household incomes take a big hit and don't much recover, nothing else recovers either. It's a cap on spending, in effect. This is the dog that wails all the tails. If the 'chance event' is 100% then there's not much doubt in terms of 'chance,' right? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com