tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post4400538936053386240..comments2024-03-12T22:00:25.991-07:00Comments on MacroMania: The trend is your friend (until it ends)David Andolfattohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-19812352034033229022012-12-14T04:56:44.696-08:002012-12-14T04:56:44.696-08:00Bullard's view that a permanent (persistent) n...Bullard's view that a permanent (persistent) negative wealth shock should be associated with a permanent (persistent) decline in the level of real GDP, leaving it's long-run growth rate largely intact. <a href="http://www.china-direct.net/" rel="nofollow">buy from china</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00181753070857437581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-78156918533257631572012-09-11T04:13:52.843-07:002012-09-11T04:13:52.843-07:00Dear Sir/Madam,
I have the pleasure to brief you ...Dear Sir/Madam,<br /><br />I have the pleasure to brief you on our Data Visualization software<br />"Trend Compass".<br /><br />TC is a new concept in viewing statistics & trends in an animated way<br />by displaying in one chart 5 axis (X, Y, Time, Bubble size & Bubble<br />color) instead of just the traditional X and Y axis. Discover trends<br />hidden in spreadsheets. It could be used in analysis, research,<br />presentation etc. In different business sectors, to name a few we<br />have Deutsche Bank, NBC Universal, RIM, Vanguard Institutional<br />Investor, Ipsos, Princeton University as our clients.<br /><br />Link on Drilling feature (Parent/Child) - Just double-click on any bubble:<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/drilling/<br /><br />NBC presentation on TED using Trend Compass exported Videos on CNN<br />Money/Fortune:<br />http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/21/from-laughing-to-judging-in-fifty-years-the-evolution-of-televised-emotion/<br /><br />Link on our new Geographical Trend Compass (Earthquake in Japan - Mag<br />vs Depth vs Time):<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/japan-earthquake<br /><br />Link on Ads Monitoring on TV Satellite Channels.<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/tv-monitor/<br /><br />Link on UK Master Card vs Visa performance :<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/mastercard_vs_visa/<br /><br />Links on Funds:<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/best_exchange_traded_funds/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/us_insurance_funds/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/aaim_fund_performance/<br /><br />Link on other KPIs :<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/hospital_performance/<br /><br />Link on Chile's Earthquake (Feb 27th 2010):<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/EarthQuakeinChile/<br />Link on weather data :<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/aims/<br /><br />Bank link to compare Deposits, Withdrawals and numbers of Customers<br />for different branches over time:<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/bank-trx/<br /><br />Misc Examples :<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/airline/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/stockmarket1/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/football/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/swinefludaily/<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/babyboomers/<br /><br />Princeton University project on US unemployment :<br />http://www.epicsyst.com/main3.swf<br /><br />A video presentation by Professor Alan Krueger Bendheim Professor of<br />Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University and currently<br />Chief Economist at the US Treasury:<br />http://epicsyst.com/trendcompass/princeton.aspx?home=1<br /><br />You can download a trial version. It has a feature to export<br />EXE,PPS,HTML and AVI files. The most impressive is the AVI since you<br />can record Audio/Video for the charts you create.<br /><br />http://www.epicsyst.com/TrendCompass/FreeVersion/TrendCompassv1.2.2.zip<br /><br />Video on Trend Compass:<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzDCGB8xBq4&feature=related<br /><br />Since we already develop 3D Virtual Reality applications, please find<br />below a link on a prototype for a new 3D VR Trend Compass application:<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueqULRUvikg&feature=related<br /><br />Regards.<br /><br />Ashrafwagdy<br />Trend Compass Team<br />Epic Systems<br />www.epicsyst.com<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-76008390323174335092012-07-31T12:33:13.524-07:002012-07-31T12:33:13.524-07:00People should learn from you that how to make an e...People should learn from you that how to make an effective blog. Complete post with thorough information. Well done.<br />Regards<br /><a href="http://www.geekersmagazine.com/funny-facebook-status.html" rel="nofollow">funny facebook status</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-84708792074822167252012-03-09T21:09:33.851-08:002012-03-09T21:09:33.851-08:00Once again great post. You seem to have a good und...Once again great post. You seem to have a good understanding of these themes.When I entering your blog,I felt this . Come on and keep writting your blog will be more attractive. To Your Success! <br /><b><a href="http://www.searchquotes.com/quotes/about/Life/" rel="nofollow">Quotes on life</a></b>Quotes on lifehttp://www.searchquotes.com/quotes/about/Life/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-1618729612447882202012-03-02T12:21:19.936-08:002012-03-02T12:21:19.936-08:00Sorry, dude...am travelling. But nice to know some...Sorry, dude...am travelling. But nice to know someone misses me! You must be one of my two followers...lol.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-23137062745715212272012-03-02T11:37:24.579-08:002012-03-02T11:37:24.579-08:00You're overdue for a new blog post, Dave. How ...You're overdue for a new blog post, Dave. How am I supposed to keep procrastinating when you don't blog?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-7912755393110828012012-02-28T08:55:16.958-08:002012-02-28T08:55:16.958-08:00"Why would there be a level adjustment to tre..."Why would there be a level adjustment to trend now?"<br /><br />Because the cross-country evidence suggests that's what happens after a financial crisis. I say "suggests" because (among other things) the sample for developed markets is small.<br /><br />Anon 212Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-52825579723458675272012-02-24T13:04:52.195-08:002012-02-24T13:04:52.195-08:00I agree since we don't have a great theory exp...I agree since we don't have a great theory explaining the growth rate of TFP, we are left to econometrics. That seems to always get us into trouble.Morris Davishttp://morris.marginalq.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-69347794457828611082012-02-24T11:36:13.147-08:002012-02-24T11:36:13.147-08:00You could plot a straight line through the data, I...You could plot a straight line through the data, I agree. But one could plot other decompositions that would fit just as well, if not better -- read Lippi and Reichlin, for example (though the statement I just made is well known among econometricians).David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-32746279046871066102012-02-24T11:26:06.221-08:002012-02-24T11:26:06.221-08:00You can plot a straight line through real GDP per ...You can plot a straight line through real GDP per capita going back to the great depression and 2% per year pops out. There are no "level adjustments" including the great depression. According to this decomposition, output was below trend by 50% in 1933, but "caught up" by the early 40s. Given the experience of the great depression, why would anything different be expected to occur now? Why would there be a level adjustment to trend now?Morris Davishttp://morris.marginalq.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-90214760825854329842012-02-21T05:17:07.542-08:002012-02-21T05:17:07.542-08:00David:
Is there any field within economics that d...David:<br /><br />Is there any field within economics that deals with the wide difference between potential and actual GDP based on the human condition. <br /><br />For example, I have talked with many lawyers and other service providers who state that technology has given them unlimited productivity but that such cannot be applied due to the fact that they are dealing with people and all sorts of resistance and psychological misjudgment.<br /><br />Take the simple procedure of getting an xray or MRI and look at the inefficiency of the process. The machines can take a picture every 15 seconds, but take one every 5 to 10 minutesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-63766643423365534872012-02-20T01:03:19.355-08:002012-02-20T01:03:19.355-08:00Keep going quotes I just read through this posting...<b><a href="http://www.searchquotes.com/search/Keep_Going/" rel="nofollow">Keep going quotes</a></b> I just read through this posting and had to express gratitude personally. Very clear and succinct!Dumbledore quoteshttp://www.searchquotes.com/quotes/author/Harry_Potter_-_Albus_Dumbledore/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-81234762105492385562012-02-19T18:34:10.259-08:002012-02-19T18:34:10.259-08:00One more thing: Tim Duy's comment about how p...One more thing: Tim Duy's comment about how potential GDP tracked GDP so well made me laugh. <br /><br />Tim attempts to do by eyeball what some of the best econometricians in the profession cannot agree on. The funny thing is, Tim thinks that the problem is simple. I wish he were correct.Chris the regression runnerhttp://whereispotentialgdp.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-3314018215894732402012-02-19T17:50:53.916-08:002012-02-19T17:50:53.916-08:00Well, what does theory say about variation in outp...Well, what does theory say about variation in output? <br /><br />Are shocks to output permanent or temporary? <br /><br />Different models imply different persistence of shocks to output. <br /><br />Now we are on your territory so I'm sure that you can fill in the blanks better than I can.Chris the regression runnerhttp://dabblingintheory.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-33434678009752940672012-02-19T17:35:28.196-08:002012-02-19T17:35:28.196-08:00Can you give me an example of how one might use th...Can you give me an example of how one might use theory to help empiricists grapple with this question?David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-32273655577612561162012-02-19T16:51:58.390-08:002012-02-19T16:51:58.390-08:00Unfortunately, from an empirical point of view, I ...Unfortunately, from an empirical point of view, I think that we can't know. <br /><br />We might have to turn to theory. [Gasp in horror.]Chris the regression runnerhttp://inthebushesofignorance.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-42154720266027061182012-02-19T14:47:06.022-08:002012-02-19T14:47:06.022-08:00Chris,
And if what you say is true (and I believe...Chris,<br /><br />And if what you say is true (and I believe you), then what say you to those who assert we are presently below potential GDP?David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-42293386138409418722012-02-19T14:27:36.468-08:002012-02-19T14:27:36.468-08:00Dave,
We've had this argument before. That ...Dave, <br /><br />We've had this argument before. That is, the profession has had it before. <br /><br />This is the difference stationary GDP argument of Peter Phillips and coauthors versus the trend stationary GDP argument of DeJong and Whiteman. The former argued from a frequentist point of view versus the latter's Bayesian point of view. <br /><br />Blough (1992) and Faust (1993) came along to show that stationary and non-stationary processes are observationally equivalent in that every stationary process is approximated arbitrarily well by a NS process and vice versa. <br /><br />Thus, we cannot know whether GDP is difference stationary as Jim Bullard seems to imply or trend stationary as his opponents seem to think.Chris the regression runnerhttp://unitrootland.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-74154261206663375602012-02-18T19:41:40.352-08:002012-02-18T19:41:40.352-08:00Good question. The broad long-run relationship bet...Good question. The broad long-run relationship between productivity growth and employment roughly zero. <br /><br />While the employment/population ratio has grown over the last century, the average work week has declined. Consequently, hours worked per capita is roughly constant. Over the same time, productivity has risen dramatically. <br /><br />So, to the extent that new technologies are labor-saving, the long-run effect is to allow labor to flow sectors where it will be better rewarded. At one time, almost everybody worked in the agricultural sector; today, almost no one does. Society seems no worse for this; and indeed, is better off (food has never been cheaper, measured in how much you have to work for your dinner). Of course, this is not to diminish the fact that there are winners and losers in transition episodes.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-24394895931585873942012-02-15T13:59:16.889-08:002012-02-15T13:59:16.889-08:00I am a Brit living in the States and am certainly ...I am a Brit living in the States and am certainly no academic economist. However, I have become quite a voracious reader and one issue has always caused me to wonder. This is related to productivity growth. I relate productivity growth to things like increasing automation in factories. However, is it possible that in a certain sense that this type of automation may raise productivity in a broad sense, yet reduce employment as machines replace people? In theory, people should be "retrained" or perhaps our educational system needs to be better as manufacturing becomes increasingly complicated (note - read the front page article in latest issue of Atlantic Magazine). But I do sometimes wonder about the broad relationshipm between productivity growth and employment.agricultural investmentshttp://www.greenworldbvi.com/alternative-investments-options/agricultural-farmland/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-83856880586630568532012-02-14T22:06:09.326-08:002012-02-14T22:06:09.326-08:00David, maybe the model of Brunnermeir and Sannikov...David, maybe the model of Brunnermeir and Sannikov is consistent with your regime switch idea?<br /><br />"We build a model to study full equilibrium dynamics, not just near the steady state. While the system is characterized by relative stability, low volatility and reasonable<br />growth around the steady state, its behavior away from the steady state is very diff erent and best resembles crises episodes as large losses plunge the system into a regime<br />with high volatility. These crisis episodes are highly nonlinear, and strong amplifying adverse feedback loops during these incidents may take the system way below the<br />stochastic steady state, resulting in signi cant ineffciencies, disinvestment, and slow recovery."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-52280991436812074342012-02-14T13:02:46.820-08:002012-02-14T13:02:46.820-08:00Robert Dugger is a whole lot of crazy packed into ...Robert Dugger is a whole lot of crazy packed into one person. I know its you, John D, you can't hide your crazy here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-55209565554418760652012-02-14T10:33:10.227-08:002012-02-14T10:33:10.227-08:00you should definitely read
http://research.stlouis...you should definitely read<br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/09/07/Basu.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-57548977318376024662012-02-14T10:32:30.266-08:002012-02-14T10:32:30.266-08:00Mark Thomas has more from Bullard on his website t...Mark Thomas has more from Bullard on his website today. Bullard references a good paper from the St.Louis Fed<br />http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/09/07/Basu.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-82424072356343559952012-02-14T07:40:33.597-08:002012-02-14T07:40:33.597-08:00Can't find the article you refer to. However, ...Can't find the article you refer to. However, I do see that this guy pointed out that Gross' call on Treasuries was wrong. Good call. But I thought you needed IS-LM to make that sort of right call. Don't tell PK...lol.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.com