tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post2946188977870007422..comments2024-03-27T11:12:49.188-07:00Comments on MacroMania: The regional dispersion in U.S. vacancy and unemployment ratesDavid Andolfattohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-30663133825534505762012-04-27T21:34:05.730-07:002012-04-27T21:34:05.730-07:00Tell me in detail whats reason to this type The re...Tell me in detail whats reason to this type The regional dispersion vacancy and unemployment rates come in job sector.<br /><a href="http://www.translators-biz-secret.com/canada-government-jobs.html" title="government interpreter jobs" rel="nofollow"> government interpreter jobsweek</a>narvkellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03433451183560091474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-60431057267728635782012-01-09T07:27:15.597-08:002012-01-09T07:27:15.597-08:00John D,
Thank you for sending me that Bloomberg a...John D,<br /><br />Thank you for sending me that Bloomberg article. I certainly do think that "debt overhang" for consumers has been an important factor. I am not sure if it is the most important factor, however. The big hit was really in investment; and residential investment, in particular, continues to lag. <br /><br />Having said that, I was having my RA investigate the regional covariation between home prices and labor market tightness. I will try to get to Mian and Sufi's work, time permitting.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-79170329499479113742012-01-09T04:41:58.026-08:002012-01-09T04:41:58.026-08:00This post and the comments are pathetic,especially...This post and the comments are pathetic,especially the comment by someone about the Austrian school and "older" businesses. Food and automobiles are the firms of the future, not the past. The personal computer is a mature industry, now more than 30 years old. Talk about Kahneman blindness and bias.<br /><br />1. You work in St. Louis, are employed by the St. Louis fed. How about some local insight?<br /><br />2. Your Kahneman blindness and bias is shown when, probably a Bullard's instruction, you inserted the word taxes.<br /><br />3. The explanation is the private debt bubble, which has strong regional variance and which drove unemployment. Bloomberg covered the matter in this newstory. How Household Debt Contributes to Unemployment: Mian and Sufi<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-17/how-household-debt-contributes-to-job-cuts-commentary-by-mian-and-sufi.html<br /><br />I simple web search will turn up Mian and Sufi's work. Their Nov. 2011 paper is excellent, but does not give info for specific cities. (W/O city specific data, how can we make local judgements?).JLDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02186957841091998126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-47822830394295169552012-01-06T08:36:28.178-08:002012-01-06T08:36:28.178-08:00"The studies I've heard about suggest tha..."The studies I've heard about suggest that this is not quantitatively very important."<br /><br />There was a private sector study earlier in the week that came to the same conclusion by looking at negative equity vs. out-migration.<br /><br />[Anon212]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-31253604067660960622012-01-05T13:14:41.792-08:002012-01-05T13:14:41.792-08:00Perhaps the affect that home ownership may or may ...Perhaps the affect that home ownership may or may not have on labour mobility isn't picked up by home ownership rates but by some other measure. Something along the lines of excess supply, fall in prices or perhaps prices in comparison to rental costs (as some measure of return).<br /><br />While these are surely not the best examples, they hopefully illustrate what I am trying to get at. That people are more stuck now in their homes because it is harder to sell (without taking a big loss at least). This would be especially pertinent to areas hit hardest which are probably pro cyclical.<br /><br />So it's not that variation in home ownership rates has some constant effect on labour mobility, but rather variation in the effect of home ownership on labour mobility coming in through the housing market.<br /><br />--or not, I can't really back this up.Benhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17324037713807409626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-60583323612991491162012-01-05T07:46:40.040-08:002012-01-05T07:46:40.040-08:00Also,
"I'm not sure about homeownership ...Also,<br /><br />"I'm not sure about homeownership restricting labor mobility. The studies I've heard about suggest that this is not quantitatively very important. Still, I guess we should not dismiss it as out of hand quite yet."<br /><br />It probably isn't a big deal in the aggregate. Across certain industries, though, you might see some action. Evidence against this explanation is that home ownership rates did not increase by very much (can't find data right now, but I think it recently was only 2-3% above the long-run average). <br /><br />But, you know me, I think that one explanation for all industries/regions is sort of suspect anyway. I'm a micro guy at heart!Prof Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-15316290818102401472012-01-05T07:36:28.780-08:002012-01-05T07:36:28.780-08:00David,
You say: "Is it simply the case that ...David,<br /><br />You say: "Is it simply the case that some regions are populated by industries that are more cyclically sensitive to aggregate shocks?"<br /><br />I think you are onto something there. I've been chatting with one of the economists at my school, and he's noted that a few states lead the business cycle and a few states lag it. The states that lead the business cycle appear to have a greater portion of state output generated by industries that are farther from the consumer stage of output. For example, more mining/basic materials production.<br /><br />The reason higher-order industries are more cyclical is implied by the Austrian business cycle theory, but I think (IIRC) that it is also the implication from the RBC papers where there are two uses of output - intermediate goods and consumer goods. I don't have time to look that up now, so I hope I'm not being terribly unclear.<br /><br />I haven't seen any work on this issue specifically, but I think it can explain some of the cyclicality and dispersion. Again, I don't know the explanatory power, but it would be worth delving into.Prof Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-83352893418540441302012-01-05T06:44:21.642-08:002012-01-05T06:44:21.642-08:00Prof J,
The idea of regional real estate booms co...Prof J,<br /><br />The idea of regional real estate booms contributing to this dispersion is almost surely true. Planned to delve into that.<br /><br />I'm not sure about homeownership restricting labor mobility. The studies I've heard about suggest that this is not quantitatively very important. Still, I guess we should not dismiss it as out of hand quite yet.David Andolfattohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12138572028306561024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-58317351605677897892012-01-04T13:19:10.815-08:002012-01-04T13:19:10.815-08:00David,
Some factors that can create such a disper...David,<br /><br />Some factors that can create such a dispersion:<br /><br />1) Different industries display different correlations to the business cycle; to the extent more/less cyclical industries concentrate by region, you could see such a dispersion;<br /><br />For example, housing construction boomed in some regions, but not in others. Therefore, the places where it boomed and crashed will show more cyclicality than other places.<br /><br />You'll have to check on that - I can't tell which cities belong to which lines in the graph.<br /><br />2) One factor that may be limiting factor mobility right now is home ownership. To the extent more people own a house rather than rent their mobility is much more limited. I don't know how big of a factor that is.<br /><br />3) Another factor - there are state by state differences in the level of unemployment insurance payments. If the UI payment relative to expected wages, that can cause some dispersion because of an effect on the unemployment rate.<br /><br />4) Again, a little hard to tell, but it seems the vacancy rates have larger dispersion and less cyclicality than the unemployment rate. I have to think about this more, but the answer might be in there some where. <br /><br />Got to work on a paper for FMA submission, but this is a pretty interesting finding!Prof Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8702840202604739302.post-88788752076036564302012-01-04T10:54:47.498-08:002012-01-04T10:54:47.498-08:00Some areas rely more on online ads as far as poste...Some areas rely more on online ads as far as posted vacancies go? That is, unless your index account for those too, which I think it doesn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com